báo cà phê—The month of September began after much volatility in the coffee market, which resulted in a clear adjustment of prices paid to producers. On the one hand, crop losses are becoming evident in Brazil; on the other, producers are beginning to worry about a predominantly dry September, similar to what happened in the same month of 2024.
This, however, is not the reality for the other major coffee-producing countries—Vietnam, Colombia, and Indonesia—which so far have experienced seasons ranging from neutral to excessive rainfall.
In Colombia, remnants of last season’s La Niña brought above-average rainfall to most coffee-growing regions. The rains may end up delaying shipments, but the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia signals a double-digit increase in production so far. With year-round production and shipments, Colombia— which typically produces and ships just over one million bags per month—produced about 8.9 million bags of coffee and shipped around 8.7 million in the first seven months of the year.
It is still uncertain whether this increase is due to higher production or to accumulated delays caused by the rains. Some entities linked to Colombian producers argue that the rise is the result of better remuneration for farmers, but in 2024 Colombians had already increased their production by more than 20% compared to 2023. For the remainder of 2025, the trend is for finally reaching neutral conditions after several seasons alternating between La Niña and El Niño.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the Pacific, Vietnam and Indonesia experienced a situation relatively similar to Colombia during the grain formation cycle. Rainfall was also somewhat above average, but recorded temperatures were slightly below normal. This small variation in climate patterns is still surprising, since a completely atypical year with unpredictable weather patterns had been expected.
That is because the typhoon, storm, and tropical depression season, which usually occurs between June and October, began this year in February (!). This exceptional event generated apprehension but turned out to be an isolated fact. Therefore, the trend for the rest of the year is similar to Colombia’s: shipment delays due to rains and neutral climate conditions.
It is worth noting that, in Southeast Asia, neutral climate does not mean the absence of events. The typhoon season effectively began in early June with Tropical Storm Wutip, which hit Vietnam, the Philippines, and China. So far, the strongest storm to affect a coffee-growing area was Typhoon Kajiki in Vietnam, which damaged thousands of hectares of plantations in the north-central region of the country, where the production of around three million bags of arabica is concentrated.
In a general assessment of Indonesia, climate patterns were similar to Vietnam’s, although the country is a vast archipelago with many islands that can experience very uneven climate conditions. This makes any forecast or attempt at climate generalization for Indonesia an extremely risky exercise. Overall, production is expected to rise by 5%, considering the general patterns this year of slightly above-average rainfall and somewhat lower-than-expected temperatures.
Back to Brazil, we are entering a month with no rain in sight, very similar to what happened in September 2024—with the difference that coffee trees received more rainfall during the current harvest. It cannot be denied that part of this year’s production loss is due to last year’s dry September. Considering the forecast of a neutral climate pattern for the rest of the year, should we expect the next harvest to be similar to the last one? In any case, if the rest of the month remains without rain, it will already be practically impossible to achieve a harvest with surplus volume capable of completely changing the direction of market prices.
