The Indonesian Coffee Exporters Association (AEKI) forecasts that in 2026, the country’s coffee exports will reach around 330,000–360,000 tons, equivalent to 5–5.5 million bags (60 kg per bag). Although this figure remains relatively positive, it is significantly lower than in 2025, when Indonesia exported as much as 508,800 tons of coffee.
Why is exports declining but still optimistic?
According to AEKI representatives, global demand for Indonesian coffee remains stable. The main reason is that Indonesia’s distinctive coffee varieties are difficult to substitute, especially those with unique flavor profiles.
Some of Indonesia’s notable coffee types include:
Gayo (Sumatra)
Toraja (Sulawesi)
Bali
These coffees have characteristic flavor profiles that help Indonesia maintain a unique position in the market, despite strong competition from Vietnam, which primarily exports large volumes of Robusta.
Rising production costs: Pressure from fertilizers and energy
One of the major challenges in 2026 is the increase in production costs, mainly driven by:
Rising fertilizer prices (especially ammonia and sulfur)
Dependence on supply from the Middle East
The global energy crisis
As input costs increase, farmers and exporters are likely to face lower profit margins.
Weather impacts on production
In addition to costs, weather conditions are also negatively affecting Indonesia’s coffee output. Several key growing regions have experienced unfavorable climate conditions, leading to expectations of lower production in 2026 compared to the previous year.
Main export markets
Indonesian coffee is mainly exported to:
The United States
Egypt
Malaysia
Germany
Italy
Among these, the United States remains the largest market, accounting for nearly 19% of total export value.
New trend: Traceability
As markets become more demanding—especially in Europe—traceability is becoming a mandatory requirement.
Traceability means:
Tracking the entire journey of coffee from farm → processing → export → consumer.
This is particularly important to comply with new regulations such as the EUDR (EU Deforestation Regulation), which requires that coffee must not be grown on land associated with deforestation.
Currently, although Indonesia has a large coffee cultivation area (around 1.27 million hectares), its traceability system is still under development.
Competition with Vietnam: Differentiation is key
Compared to Vietnam—the world’s largest Robusta exporter—Indonesia has advantages in:
A diverse range of coffee varieties
A strong presence in specialty coffee
Unique flavor profiles
In addition, the weakening of the Rupiah has made Indonesian coffee more price-competitive in the global market.
