September 13, 2025 – Coffee prices closed the week with significant gains on international exchanges, as weather uncertainties in Brazil and tightening global supply fueled strong upward momentum across both Arabica and Robusta varieties.
Vietnamese Robusta Prices Hold Firm
In Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of Robusta, domestic prices remained elevated, reflecting robust international demand. On September 13, Robusta (unscreened bulk) was quoted as follows:
| Province | VND/kg | USD/kg |
|---|---|---|
| Lâm Đồng | 121,000 | 4.62 |
| Gia Lai | 121,000 | 4.62 |
| Đắk Lắk | 122,000 | 4.66 |
| Đắk Nông | 122,000 | 4.66 |
| Quảng Ngãi | 120,500 | 4.61 |
| Đồng Nai | 120,500 | 4.61 |
| Bình Phước | 120,500 | 4.61 |
With the USD/VND exchange rate at 26,166, Vietnamese farmers and exporters remain optimistic about the next harvest, citing favorable weather conditions.
Brazilian Arabica Strengthens on Drought Risks
Brazil, the world’s largest Arabica producer, saw sharp gains in farm-gate prices as prolonged dry weather heightened fears of production losses. Prices for unscreened Arabica were reported as:
| Region | BRL/kg | USD/kg |
|---|---|---|
| Guaxupé | 39.17 | 7.32 |
| Poços de Caldas | 38.50 | 7.20 |
| Patrocínio | 39.75 | 7.43 |
| Varginha | 39.33 | 7.35 |
| Campos Gerais | 39.25 | 7.34 |
The Brazilian real (BRL) strengthened to 5.35 per USD, amplifying price movements. According to agronomist Jonas Leme Ferraresso, dry conditions have already damaged the potential of the 2026 crop, with many plantations suffering defoliation ahead of the critical flowering stage.
Colombian and Indonesian Markets
In Colombia, Arabica FR94 traded at 24,800 COP/kg (USD 6.37), with the USD/COP exchange rate at 3,894. Meanwhile, Indonesian Robusta from Sumatra was priced at 64,000 IDR/kg (USD 3.90), pressured by excessive rainfall disrupting harvest activities.
Futures Market – London and New York Rally
International futures contracts rallied strongly:
London Robusta (ICE, USD/ton):
- Sept 2025: 4,817 (+80)
- Nov 2025: 4,601 (+80)
- Jan 2026: 4,527 (+81)
New York Arabica (ICE, cents/lb):
- Sept 2025: 410.65 (+10.60)
- Dec 2025: 396.85 (+10.75)
- Mar 2026: 382.35 (+9.55)
The rally marked the largest gain for Arabica in four months and the strongest rise for Robusta in 1.5 weeks. Market participants highlighted concerns over near-term availability, dwindling global inventories, and the urgent need for rainfall in Brazil later this month to support the next flowering.
Domestic Brazilian Market
The internal Brazilian market also mirrored these gains:
- Arabica Type 6:
- Machado/MG: R$ 2,480/sack (+2.48%)
- Guaxupé/MG: R$ 2,361/sack (+2.16%)
- Campos Gerais/MG: R$ 2,365/sack (+1.72%)
- Cereja Descascado:
- Guaxupé/MG: R$ 2,459/sack (+2.08%)
- Varginha/MG: R$ 2,450/sack (+1.24%)
Market Outlook
Analyst Gil Barabach from Safras & Mercado emphasized that the coffee market remains highly volatile, with short-term supply concerns, nearly depleted global stocks, and weather risks in Brazil driving speculative activity. Conversely, favorable conditions in Vietnam may provide some balance for the Robusta segment, while Indonesia faces setbacks due to heavy rainfall.
With weather emerging as the decisive factor, traders are closely monitoring precipitation forecasts in Brazil. Substantial rainfall by late September could determine the scale of the 2026 Arabica crop and set the tone for coffee markets heading into the new year.
