1. Vietnam Domestic Coffee Market
Robusta coffee prices in the Central Highlands remain high, ranging from 118,000 – 118,500 VND/kg (equivalent to 4.51 – 4.53 USD/kg). Specifically:
- Lam Dong, Gia Lai: 118,200 VND/kg (4.52 USD/kg)
- Dak Lak, Dak Nong: 118,500 VND/kg (4.53 USD/kg)
- Quang Ngai, Dong Nai, Binh Phuoc: 118,000 VND/kg (4.51 USD/kg)
| Province | VND/kg | USD/kg |
|---|---|---|
| Lam Dong | 118,200 | 4.52 |
| Gia Lai | 118,200 | 4.52 |
| Dak Lak | 118,500 | 4.53 |
| Dak Nong | 118,500 | 4.53 |
| Quang Ngai | 118,000 | 4.51 |
| Dong Nai | 118,000 | 4.51 |
| Binh Phuoc | 118,000 | 4.51 |
This indicates that the domestic market remains stable, despite strong upward fluctuations in international exchanges.
2. Global Coffee Market
2.1. Brazil
- Arabica: prices range from 30.17 – 30.83 BRL/kg, equivalent to 5.57 – 5.69 USD/kg in Guaxupé, Poços de Caldas, Patrocínio, Varginha, and Campos Gerais.
Domestic futures:
- Dec/2025: 460 USD/60kg bag (≈ 12.03 million VND/bag)
- Mar/2026: 456 USD/60kg bag (≈ 11.92 million VND/bag)
| Region | BRL/kg | USD/kg |
|---|---|---|
| Guaxupé | 30.17 | 5.57 |
| Poços de Caldas | 30.33 | 5.60 |
| Patrocínio | 30.83 | 5.69 |
| Varginha | 30.67 | 5.66 |
| Campos Gerais | 30.17 | 5.57 |
According to Escritório Carvalhaes, Brazil’s 2025 crop has almost ended, with Arabica output falling sharply, in many areas down 20–30% compared to expectations. Unstable weather (drought, irregular rains, frost, hail) has ruled out the possibility of a record harvest in 2026.
2.2. Colombia
- Arabica (FR94): 24,096 COP/kg, equivalent to 6.01 USD/kg.
Colombia maintains the region’s highest price thanks to specialty coffee quality and stable demand.
| Husk factor | COP/kg | USD/kg |
|---|---|---|
| 94 | 24,096 | 6.01 |
2.3. Indonesia
- Robusta Sumatra: 61,800 IDR/kg, equivalent to 3.75 USD/kg.
Lower than Vietnam due to abundant supply, but Indonesia remains competitive in Robusta exports.
| Region | IDR/kg | USD/kg |
|---|---|---|
| Sumatra | 61,800 | 3.75 |
3. Futures Market
3.1. London Exchange (Robusta) – Sept 04, 2025
- Sep/2025: 4,610 USD/ton (+8)
- Nov/2025: 4,454 USD/ton (+55)
- Jan/2026: 4,371 USD/ton (+54)
| Contract | USD/ton | VND/kg | BRL/kg | COP/kg | IDR/kg | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/2025 | 4,610 | 120.598 | 25.12 | 18,463 | 75,821 | +8 |
| 11/2025 | 4,454 | 116.517 | 24.27 | 17,838 | 73,255 | +55 |
| 01/2026 | 4,371 | 114.345 | 23.82 | 17,506 | 71,890 | +54 |
=> Robusta continues its upward trend on global supply shortage concerns.
3.2. New York Exchange (Arabica) – Sept 04, 2025
- Sep/2025: 385.25 c/lb (+3.05)
- Dec/2025: 373.65 c/lb (+3.30)
- Jan/2026: 361.80 c/lb (+3.05)
| Contract | cent/lb | VND/kg | BRL/kg | COP/kg | IDR/kg | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/2025 | 385.25 | 223.959 | 46.658 | 34,287 | 140,805 | +3.05 |
| 11/2025 | 373.65 | 217.215 | 45.253 | 33,255 | 136,565 | +3.30 |
| 01/2026 | 361.80 | 210.326 | 43.818 | 32,200 | 132,234 | +3.05 |
=> Arabica surged after reports of Brazil’s steep production decline and weakening global exports.
4. Market Impact & Macroeconomic Factors
According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee exports in July fell 1.6% to 11.6 million bags; cumulative Oct/2024 – Jul/2025 exports decreased 0.3% to 115.6 million bags. This reinforced the price rally.
The market is also affected by the US imposing a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee, prompting many US importers to suspend purchases, raising concerns about supply disruption.
Bloomberg reports that world coffee prices may remain highly volatile in the short term due to trade policy uncertainty and weather factors.
5. Brazil Domestic Market
According to Safras & Mercado, the physical market is sluggish due to divergence between rising futures prices and the falling USD/BRL exchange rate, leading farmers to withhold stocks.
- Arabica type 6 in Guaxupé fell 2.15% to 2,271 BRL/bag.
- Franca rose 1.28% to 2,370 BRL/bag.
- Campos Gerais rose 0.88% to 2,300 BRL/bag.
- Arabica Cereja Descascado: Guaxupé down 2.07% (2,369 BRL/bag), Campos Gerais up 0.85% (2,360 BRL/bag).
| Region | Price (BRL/bag) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Guaxupé | 2,271 | -2.15% |
| Franca | 2,370 | +1.28% |
| Campos Gerais | 2,300 | +0.88% |
| Cereja Guaxupé | 2,369 | -2.07% |
| Cereja Campos | 2,360 | +0.85% |
Global coffee markets on Sept 04, 2025, saw prices rising across both London and New York exchanges, mainly due to concerns over supply shortages from Brazil and reduced global exports. In Vietnam, domestic coffee prices remain high and stable, benefiting farmers but adding pressure to roasters and exporters.
Outlook: Coffee prices are likely to maintain their upward trend, but volatility will remain high due to weather conditions, US–Brazil trade policies, and stockpiling by farmers in major producing countries.
