Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) has also revised its Brazilian coffee production forecast downwards. In its third official estimate, made during the final phase of the harvest, the agency under Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA) put 2025/26 production at 55.2 million bags, or 471,000 bags less than in the second estimate, released in May.
This revision is due to a significant reduction in the Arabica estimate (-1.83 million bags compared to the May forecast), which is partially offset by a significant increase in the Robusta production estimate (+1.4 million).
It should be noted that Conab’s estimates are traditionally well below those of analysts and the industry.
The aforementioned figure of 55.2 million bags represents an overall increase of 1.8% compared to the 2024/25 crop. However, Arabica production fell by 11.2% to 35.15 million bags. Robusta production, on the other hand, reached a record level of 20.1 million bags, marking a 37.2% increase year on year.
In addition to the negative cycle, Arabica production was affected by the prolonged drought in the months preceding the flowering period. Below-normal rain and high temperatures in February and early March also had an impact, increasing the incidence of pests and other adversities, as well as complicating the application of fertilisers.
The exceptional Robusta harvest, on the other hand, reflects a favourable climate during the development of the crop, as well as substantial investments in recent years.
The total area destined for coffee cultivation is 2.25 million hectares. This represents an increase of 0.9%. Of this area, 1.86 million hectares are under production (-1.2%), while 395,800 hectares are under formation (+11.9%).
The total area cultivated with Arabica coffee is 1.84 million hectares, of which 1.49 million (-1.5%) are under production and 353,100 hectares (+12.3%) are under formation. The total area cultivated with Robusta is 415,600 hectares, of which 372,900 are under production, essentially unchanged from last year.
Average productivity on a national scale has increased by 3% compared to last year, reaching 29.7 bags/ha.
The trend is clearly opposite for the two varieties. In fact, Arabica productivity has fallen by 9.9% to 23.7 bags/ha. Conversely, Robusta productivity has soared to an unprecedented 53.8 bags/ha, marking a 37% increase compared to a year ago.
In Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest producer of Arabica coffee, the harvest has decreased by 10% to 25.28 million bags. Productivity has decreased by 7.9%.
Production has fallen across all regions, beginning with Sul and Centro-Oeste (-11.3%), Triângulo, Alto Paranaíba and Noroeste (-13.8%), and Zona da Mata, Rio Doce and Central (-6.4%). The decline is more moderate in Norte, Jequitinhonha and Mucuri (-1.5%).
Meanwhile, production in Espírito Santo surged to 17.1 million bags (+23.2%), driven by a record Robusta harvest of 13.814 million bags (+40.3%), resulting in a productivity level of 53.5 bags/ha.
Conversely, the Arabica harvest fell by 18.8% to 3.265 million, due to the off-cycle. However, productivity remained above the national average at 26.8 bags/ha.
São Paulo (100% Arabica) suffered the heaviest decline of all the states over the year, with drought and the off-cycle leading to a 12.9% drop in production to 4.74 million bags.
Production in Bahia increased by a third (33.5%), reaching 4.1 million bags. The Arabica harvest increased by 2.4% to 1.14 million, with productivity reaching 43.3 bags/ha in Cerrado. Meanwhile, Robusta production surged by 51.2% to 2.95 million bags, with productivity reaching an impressive 62.8 bags/ha.
Productivity and production also increased in Rondônia, where the Robusta harvest stood at 2.31 million.
Above-average productivity was finally seen in Paraná, where the Arabica harvest grew by 9.8% to 741,800 bags.
