November 14 – Global coffee markets are buzzing as Reuters and several major news agencies report that U.S. President Donald Trump has announced tariff exemptions on a range of food and agricultural products — including coffee. The move aims to ease rising living costs for American consumers, who continue to face high food inflation. For Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer, this could mark a strategic turning point.
A Geopolitical Window Opens
Sources indicate the U.S. will prioritize coffee-producing countries that do not cultivate coffee domestically, with Vietnam emerging as a primary candidate. Analysts predict that Vietnamese coffee may be included in a new list of “strategic tariff-exempt commodities”, part of a bilateral trade framework signaling Washington’s intent to eliminate the current 20% tariff on selected Vietnamese exports.
The new executive order reinforces this vision — a shift from policy talk to tangible implementation. For Vietnam’s coffee sector, it’s a rare moment to restructure, identify competitive strengths, and prepare for aggressive market entry.
A key factor is Brazil. Despite being the largest global supplier, Brazilian coffee will continue to face a 40% U.S. import tariff, opening a competitive gap. On Nov. 15, AP News cited Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin confirming that Brazil’s coffee remains subject to higher tariffs even after the tariff-relief announcement.
Vietnam Eyes Rapid Export Expansion
The prospect of 0% tariffs has energized Vietnamese exporters.
Nguyen Duc Hung, Chairman of Napoli Coffee, said the U.S. currently accounts for only 10% of the firm’s exports, mainly due to high duties.
“If the tariff goes to zero, we plan to increase volume tenfold. The U.S. is short on coffee, and high tariffs have constrained Vietnam’s potential,” Hung said.
Other leading exporters are reportedly reallocating sales and logistics resources from Europe and the Middle East toward the U.S., driven by lower tariffs and high consumption.
The U.S. is the largest coffee importer globally, worth $9 billion in 2024. In value terms, Brazil leads, while Vietnam ranks 8th at $364 million — but sits third in volume.
Vietnam exported 74,680 tons of coffee to the U.S. in the first 10 months of 2025, worth nearly $407 million, up 85% in value and 10% in volume year-on-year, according to Vietnam Customs data.
A representative of VICOFA (Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association) says the development is expected:
“The U.S. depends on Brazil for nearly 90% of its coffee imports. If Vietnam gets a 0% tariff while others are taxed heavily, the advantage is enormous.”
U.S. Consumers Turn to Cheaper Coffee Alternatives
Nearly 99% of coffee consumed in the U.S. is imported. Tariffs have significantly pushed up retail prices:
– USD $9.14 per pound of ground coffee (Sept. 2025)
– Up 41% year-on-year, per U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Current import taxes:
Brazil: 50%
Vietnam: 20%
Indonesia: 19%
Colombia: 10%
Vietnam’s strength lies in low-cost Robusta, suitable for mass-market blends and instant coffee — a key advantage in price-sensitive markets.
Challenges: Taste, Branding, Supply Chain
But success will not come without challenges.
- Consumer Taste:
Most U.S. consumers still prefer Arabica, known for its milder flavor. Vietnam must adapt Robusta profiles — or blend with Arabica sourced from Laos or Myanmar — to align with evolving U.S. preferences, such as:
Capsules
Drip bags
Ready-to-drink cold brew
Adaptation could take 2–3 years, experts estimate.
- Branding & Traceability:
U.S. buyers increasingly demand:
Farm-to-cup transparency
ESG certifications
Sustainable sourcing
Without brand visibility, Vietnam risks competing on price alone.
- Deep Processing Capacity:
Much of Vietnam’s coffee is still exported raw. Without investment in roasting, soluble coffee, and value-added products, tariff advantages may be underutilized. - Logistics Costs:
Even with zero tariffs, shipping, warehousing, and distribution in the U.S. remain expensive. Companies lacking supply chain partnerships in the U.S. may see margins eroded. - Brazil Factor:
If Brazil negotiates equal tariff removal, Vietnam’s temporary advantage evaporates. This makes speed and strategy crucial.
A Defining Moment for Vietnamese Coffee
Experts say the tariff exemption is a major gateway — but only for those ready to move fast and think long-term.
To fully capitalize, Vietnam’s coffee industry must:
Shift from raw exports to high-value products
Strengthen brand identity and traceability
Invest in technology-driven processing
Build U.S. logistics partnerships
Monitor trade negotiations closely
The door is open — but only those who walk through it prepared will secure lasting ground in the world’s most valuable coffee market.
