báo cafe—Since 2020, Brazil has not had a bumper coffee crop. This year, amid a negative biennial cycle, the country once again faced the impact of adverse weather events in the main coffee-producing regions, which reduced bean yields.
The new projections for Brazil’s 2025/26 total crop indicate a decline in processed bags, with a significant drop in arabica production.
With 96% of the coffee area already harvested by the end of August, Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) revised its estimate in the 3rd Coffee Crop Survey, released on September 4.
The new forecast points to 55.2 million processed bags, representing a 1.8% increase compared to 2024. However, after a long period of drought and high temperatures, arabica production is estimated at only 35.2 million bags, down 11.2% from the previous season. In contrast, robusta (conilon) output is estimated at 20.1 million bags, up 37.2% from the 2024 crop, thanks to more favorable weather conditions during the critical stages of the crop, which ensured better flowering and fruit development.
Meanwhile, consulting firm Safras & Mercado revised its projection to 63.35 million bags, down 3.3% from the previous estimate. The main reason was a smaller-than-expected arabica harvest, projected at 38.05 million bags, a 14% drop compared to the previous crop. For robusta/conilon, Safras & Mercado expects production to exceed 25 million bags. “Brazil’s 2025 coffee crop fell short of expectations after a promising start. During the second half of the arabica harvest, we encountered a very different scenario,” explained Safras & Mercado consultant Gil Barabach.
Brazil has also seen weather events not experienced in its main producing regions for at least four years. One example was the frost recorded in Cerrado Mineiro on August 11, which affected around 5.5% of the region’s productive potential and could reduce next year’s harvest by about 412,000 bags, according to a study published by Expocacer.
According to a StoneX report, during May, June, and July the team returned to the field to evaluate effective yields. It was confirmed that low rainfall and high temperatures during the key bean-filling stage of arabica resulted in smaller and lighter cherries. As a result, arabica output was revised down 5.7% from the previous forecast, totaling 36.5 million bags, an 18.4% decline year-on-year. For robusta, StoneX maintained its estimate of 25.8 million bags, up 21.9% compared to the previous season.
Data released by Itaú BBA also highlighted a decline in Brazil’s arabica crop. Due to lower recovery rates after processing, the consultancy used USDA’s supply and demand data as a base and now estimates arabica output at 38.7 million bags, 11.5% lower than the previous season and 2.2 million below the USDA’s official estimate of 40.9 million. However, they maintained the projection for robusta at 24.1 million bags, bringing Brazil’s total 2025 coffee crop to 62.8 million bags.
